Delayed Southwest Monsoon Set to Advance Over East Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand Soon
Representational Image: AI-Skymet
Key Takeaways:
- The Southwest Monsoon remains significantly behind its normal advancement schedule across most parts of India.
- Gujarat is likely to witness only slow and marginal monsoon progress during the next few days.
- East Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Uttarakhand are likely to receive the monsoon soon amid increasing rainfall activity.
- Forecast Validity: Next 2 to 5 days.
The progress of the Southwest Monsoon continues to remain sluggish across most parts of the country. Both the Arabian Sea branch and the Bay of Bengal branch are running well behind their normal schedule, making this one of the slowest monsoon advances in recent years.
As of June 26, the western arm of the monsoon has reached Surat in South Gujarat, while the eastern branch has advanced up to Motihari in Bihar. Normally, by this time, the monsoon would have covered most parts of Madhya Pradesh, Southeast Rajasthan, over half of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Ladakh and parts of Jammu & Kashmir, besides extending much farther into Gujarat.
The delay has been caused by the absence of strong monsoon systems and weak large-scale circulation over central and northwestern parts of the country, preventing the seasonal winds from making rapid progress.
Gujarat to Witness Slow Progress
Weather conditions over Gujarat are not expected to support any significant advancement of the monsoon during the next three to four days. Although isolated rain activity will continue over South Gujarat and adjoining areas, the monsoon is likely to make only marginal progress over the state during this period.
The absence of any strong offshore trough or low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea is limiting the strength of southwesterly winds along the Gujarat coast, thereby slowing further advancement.
Madhya Pradesh Likely to See Better Progress
Unlike Gujarat, weather conditions over Madhya Pradesh are expected to become more favourable for monsoon advancement. Moisture incursion from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal is likely to increase gradually, resulting in scattered to fairly widespread rainfall across several districts.
This improvement in rainfall activity should help the monsoon advance over more parts of central Madhya Pradesh during the coming days.
The most promising development is likely over Northeast Uttar Pradesh. During the last 24 hours, several districts in the region recorded moderate rainfall. Gorakhpur recorded 41 mm of rain, while neighbouring districts also witnessed scattered showers.
Rain activity is expected to continue over the northeastern districts of Uttar Pradesh during the next 24 to 48 hours. Under the influence of these favourable weather conditions, the Southwest Monsoon is likely to advance over parts of East Uttar Pradesh and adjoining areas of Uttarakhand shortly.
If this advancement materializes as expected, the monsoon's arrival over these regions will broadly coincide with its normal onset date of around June 20, although the progress over the rest of the Indo-Gangetic plains will continue to lag behind.
Monsoon to Move Along the Himalayan Foothills
The synoptic pattern during the next few days suggests that the monsoon will preferentially advance along the foothills of the Himalayas. Moist easterly winds and enhanced rainfall are likely over eastern Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and adjoining Himalayan regions, allowing the monsoon current to extend northwestward along this corridor.
However, the same favorable conditions are not yet expected over the plains of northwest India, where rainfall activity is likely to remain subdued.
Outlook
While the overall monsoon progress remains considerably delayed across large parts of the country, weather conditions are gradually becoming favourable for advancement over East Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and parts of Madhya Pradesh.
The next few days are expected to witness a slow but steady northward progression of the monsoon along the Himalayan foothills, while western and northwestern India may continue to wait longer for widespread monsoon activity.
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