Southwest Monsoon To Miss Normal Date Over Mumbai: Resounding Onset Unlikely
Representational Image: AI-Skymet
Key Takeaways:
- Monsoon reached Konkan Coast ahead of schedule
- Mumbai likely to miss normal monsoon onset date of June 11
- Heavy rain expected over South Konkan between June 14 and 16
- Mumbai may witness a softer monsoon onset this year
Southwest monsoon advanced along the West Coast at a fairly fast pace. Despite a late arrival over Kerala, it hit the Konkan Coast a day earlier than normal. The northern limit of monsoon passes through Harnai, a small town in Ratnagiri district along the Konkan Coast.
Courtesy an east-west trough extending from a cyclonic circulation over the East-Central Arabian Sea, off Goa and the Konkan Coast, South Konkan region received heavy rainfall over the last two days. Ratnagiri and Harnai received 136 mm and 67 mm rainfall, respectively, during the last 48 hours. This feature has now become less marked and therefore, the rainfall activity will remain confined to areas south of Konkan, predominantly over Goa and Coastal Karnataka, for the next three days. Rainfall will be very light along the Konkan region, including Mumbai, during this period.
Earlier, the arrival date of monsoon over Mumbai was revised from June 10 to June 11. The city and suburbs have received scanty rainfall in the month of June so far. Santacruz and Colaba have recorded 13.1 mm and 5 mm rainfall, respectively, between June 1 and June 10. The normal rainfall for the month of June is 526.3 mm. Last year, the monsoon clocked the earliest-ever onset on May 26 and made a timely arrival over Mumbai on June 9, 2024. In contrast, the monsoon was delayed by nearly two weeks in 2023 and arrived on June 25. This year as well, the monsoon is likely to miss its normal arrival date of June 11.
Plain speaking, the monsoon is expected to remain in a holding pattern over South Konkan for the next 4-5 days. There is a likelihood of formation of a lower-level cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea, off Goa and South Konkan, on June 13. This system will shift closer to the coastline on June 14. Rainfall activity will increase along the Konkan Coast, covering Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri, Raigad, Alibag, Mumbai and Palghar between June 14 and June 16, 2026.
There could be heavy to very heavy rainfall over South Konkan, covering Devgad, Sindhudurg, Bhatye, Ratnagiri, Dabhol and Raigad. Rainfall may not be very heavy over Alibag, Mumbai, Palghar and Dahanu. Yet, the monsoon arrival over Mumbai may be announced anytime around June 15 (+/- 1 day). A typical resounding onset of monsoon, accompanied by heavy rainfall for a couple of days, may be missing this season, and the monsoon may make a soft entry over Mumbai.
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