Decent Monsoon Showers Last Four Days: Rainfall Deficit Gets Arrested
Key Takeaways:
- India's seasonal rainfall deficit has improved marginally from 24% to 23%.
- Heavy rainfall is expected over East and Central India during the next two days.
- The rainfall belt will gradually shift towards Central India, Rajasthan, Konkan and North India later this week.
- Another monsoon break is likely during early August, reducing rainfall activity across the country.
- Forecast Validity: Next 2 to 3 days.
Courtesy of the low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal and its inland movement, rainfall intensity and coverage were sufficient to reduce the June rainfall deficit from about 40% to 14% by July 9, 2026. However, monsoon activity weakened thereafter, with light and scattered showers causing the rainfall shortfall to increase by nearly 1–2% each day until July 16.
July began with surplus rainfall during the first week, but the gains were offset during the second week. As a result, the seasonal rainfall deficit between June 1 and July 16 widened to 24%. Over the past four days, however, the decline has been arrested.
Between June 1 and July 19, cumulative Pan-India rainfall stood at 253.2 mm against the normal of 332.5 mm, leaving a deficit of 24%. Although rainfall during the past four days remained below normal, it was sufficient to prevent any further deterioration. During this period, India received 26.4 mm of rainfall against the normal of 38.9 mm, resulting in a 30% shortfall.
For the first time in the recent spell, daily rainfall has exceeded the climatological normal. Against the Pan-India daily normal of 9.6 mm, the country recorded 10 mm of rainfall today. Consequently, the seasonal rainfall deficit has improved marginally to 23%.
Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, East Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh during the next two days. Moderate showers are also likely over Vidarbha and Telangana.
Thereafter, the cyclonic circulation is expected to move westward, shifting the rainfall belt towards Central and North Madhya Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, and Konkan & Goa. Scattered rain and thundershowers are also likely over the northern plains, including Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi.
From July 26 onwards, the monsoon trough is likely to shift towards the Himalayan foothills. Consequently, rainfall activity will become concentrated along the foothills and the Indo-Gangetic plains. Another monsoon "break" is expected during early August, leading to an overall reduction in rainfall activity.
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