Back-To-Back Western Disturbance: Northern Hills-Plains Have Rain/Snow
Key Takeaways:
- Two western disturbances will affect North India between mid-February dates.
- Rain and snow will be more significant over the mountains than the plains.
- Plains may see only light, scattered rainfall around 17–18 February.
- Rising temperatures afterward will signal the transition toward the pre-monsoon phase.
A pair of western disturbances is likely to move across the northern parts of the country during the next week. Hills and plains will have simultaneous weather activity, more so in the mountains than in the plains. This could possibly be the last spell of February for the plains, with a seasonal change thereafter. Winter is unlikely to extend, as premised earlier, on account of La Niña conditions.
The first western disturbance is likely to arrive late tonight and move across, clearing the region by Saturday morning. The mid and higher reaches will have scattered light to moderate rain and snow. The lower parts may remain spared from precipitation and instead witness a cloudy sky with misty conditions.
The second system will approach the Western Himalayas in quick succession. The induced circulation over the plains will accompany the main system over the hills. Together, they will influence weather conditions between 16th and 18th Feb 2026. The hilly states will have mild weather activity between 16th and 17th Feb and start clearing by the morning of 18th. The plains will begin activity with a lag of about 24 hours and extend by a similar margin, ceasing on 18th Feb 2026.
The intensity and spread of weather activity will not be strong over the plains. On 17th Feb, North and Northeast Rajasthan, parts of Punjab and Haryana, and the foothills may receive scattered rain and thunderstorms. The peripheral influence may even reach Delhi. The next day, the spatial coverage and scale of weather will shrink. Light and isolated rainfall is expected over Southwest Uttar Pradesh, North Madhya Pradesh, Northeast Rajasthan, and the Delhi region. Broad clearance across the region is likely from 19th Feb onwards. Thereafter, the plains are unlikely to receive any winter weather system during the month. A clear weather window is expected between 18th and 25th Feb 2026. A temperature rise, signalling the initial phase of the pre-monsoon season, looks likely toward the fag end of February.
