Low Pressure Area To Form Shortly: Heavy Rainfall Over South India This Week
Key Takeaways:
- A low-pressure area over the central Bay of Bengal may intensify and move toward Sri Lanka by Feb 17–18.
- Heavy to very heavy rain and flooding risk are likely across southern Sri Lanka through Feb 19.
- The system may approach south Tamil Nadu and Kerala around Feb 21–22, bringing intense rainfall.
- Weather conditions may improve gradually after Feb 24–25 across southern India.
A cyclonic circulation has been persisting for a fairly long time over the extreme southern parts of the central Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the adjoining equatorial region. A low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region within the next 24 hours. It will move westward, intensify, and approach the island nation of Sri Lanka on February 17 and 18, 2026. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over the southern half of Sri Lanka. Colombo, which escaped rain during the World Cup match, is likely to witness heavy weather activity between February 17 and 19, 2026. Colombo, Galle, Kandy, Hambantota, and adjoining areas may experience flooding rains during this period. The east coast of Sri Lanka is expected to be battered more than the rest.
The weather system is likely to intensify further and move very slowly across Sri Lanka, Comorin, and neighboring regions. The low-pressure area will come into close proximity to the southern tip of India between February 21 and 22, 2026. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over the southernmost parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The system is unlikely to move far into the Arabian Sea and may get subsumed into the equatorial trough by February 25, 2026.
Weather activity may begin on a milder note over southern parts, particularly South Coastal Tamil Nadu, from February 19 and continue until February 23, 2026. Conditions will start receding on February 24, and broad clearance may begin around February 25, 2026. Extreme southern parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala are likely to witness fairly widespread weather activity between February 20 and 23, 2026. During this period, coastal stations may face inclement weather conditions, especially on February 21 and 22, 2026. Areas vulnerable to severe weather include Pamban, Tondi, Tuticorin, Kanyakumari, Thiruvananthapuram, Alappuzha, Punalur, Kochi, and interior parts of both states. Caution is advised due to the risk of flooding rains in some locations across these two states.
