Winter Rainfall Very Poor Across All Regions: Large Deficiency Over Northeast India
Key Takeaways:
- Pan-India winter rainfall deficit stands at 58% between Jan 1 and Feb 24, 2026.
- Winter 2026 may end with over 60% deficiency, the worst in a decade.
- Fourth consecutive weak winter rainfall season across India.
- Northeast India (-90%) and Northwest India (-50%) are the worst affected.
Winter rains have been very disappointing over all the four homogeneous regions of the country. Most parts of the country could never recover from the rain deficit, getting piled up week after week. January and February are taken as the core winter months and account for the seasonal rainfall. Between 01st Jan and 24th Feb 2026, there is a pan-India deficiency of 58% rainfall. In the remaining days of the month, very little rainfall is expected and the overall shortfall may exceed 60% for the winter season. Incidentally, this could be the largest deficiency of winter rainfall for the last one decade or even more.
This is the fourth successive failure of winter season rainfall. And even in that, this year is the worst performance of all. The last good winter rains were observed in 2022, with a surplus of 47% rainfall. Winter rainfall 2026 will figure amongst the worst seasons in history. February, otherwise the rainiest winter month, has performed poorer than January.
The month of January had also made a disappointing start and the deficiency mounted to 83% between 01st and 22nd Jan 2026. Courtesy of a good spell of rain in the plains and snow in the hills between 23rd and 26th Jan 2026, the recovery was made and the deficit reduced to 31% rainfall. The month of February has been rather sketchy and the rains were far and few most of the time. The week between 12th and 18th Feb 2026 observed a countrywide shortfall of 98%. It means there were literally no rains. The next week between 19th and 25th Feb 2026 is not going to be any better. There is likely to be a deficit of over 75% during the week.
Region-wise, all the four pockets have significant shortfall. Courtesy of some good showers over South India due to the low pressure over the Bay of Bengal, the deficit got reduced to 13% from the earlier high of 30% till 18th Feb 2026. However, the deficit as of today is the highest — 90% over Northeast India, followed by 79% over Central India, and most importantly Northwest India, the agri-bowl, has a shortfall of a massive 50% rainfall. The percentage in the respective regions is likely to rise over the remaining days of the month. The season may close with an overall shortfall of 60% rainfall or more.
