What is Skymet's latest monsoon forecast for 2026?

Skymet has revised its 2026 Southwest Monsoon forecast from 94% to 85% of the Long Period Average, with a 70% probability of drought. August rainfall is expected at 84% of LPA and September at 80% of LPA.

How strong is El Niño currently?

El Niño continues to strengthen, with weekly Niño 3.4 reaching +1.8°C by mid-August. NOAA's latest outlook gives an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño during October–December 2026.

Rainfall is expected to remain concentrated over eastern and adjoining central India, particularly Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh initially, before the vigorous belt shifts towards Bihar, Jharkhand, North Chhattisgarh, North Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal.

Skymet Weekly Intelligence — 24 August 2026

By: Arti Kumari | Edited By: Arti Kumari

Aug 24, 2026, 6:30 PM

Key Takeaways:

Skymet has revised the 2026 Southwest Monsoon forecast to 85% of LPA, with a 70% probability of drought.
Heavy rainfall remains concentrated over eastern and central India, while several rain-deficient regions continue to underperform.
Weekly Niño 3.4 reached +1.8°C by mid-August, while NOAA gives an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño during October–December 2026.
Reservoir availability, crop-stage moisture and intraday power-market conditions are becoming increasingly important as rainfall remains geographically uneven.
Forecast Validity: Next 7 days.

It is August’s last week, and India's monsoon landscape has become increasingly uneven. Though multiple weather systems have been emerging from the Bay of Bengal, these spells remain inadequate for a broad-based monsoon recovery.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is based on Skymet’s proprietary weather database, internal forecast models, station observations, climatological datasets, and expert meteorological interpretation by the Skymet Weather team. While every effort is made to ensure scientific accuracy, weather conditions are dynamic and may evolve over time. This assessment is intended for informational purposes and should not be considered an absolute or guaranteed prediction.

Skymet is India’s most accurate private weather forecasting and climate intelligence company, providing reliable weather data, monsoon updates, and agri-risk management solutions across the country.