After the Initial Monsoon Surge, Mumbai Rains Ease; Fresh Spell of Heavy Showers Likely From June 29
Representational Image: AI-Skymet
Key Takeaways:
- Mumbai witnessed extremely heavy rainfall during the monsoon onset, with Colaba recording 248 mm and Santacruz 225 mm.
- Rainfall intensity has reduced significantly over the last 24 hours as the initial monsoon surge weakened.
- A fresh spell of moderate to heavy rainfall is likely across Mumbai and coastal Maharashtra from June 29 onward.
- Heavy rains during the first week of July are expected to improve reservoir storage levels supplying water to Mumbai.
- Forecast validity: Next 2 to 7 days.
After making Mumbaikars wait for nearly two weeks, the Southwest Monsoon finally arrived over Mumbai on June 23, marking its onset with a spectacular burst of rainfall. The delayed arrival, by about 13 days, was accompanied by intense rain across the city and suburbs, with almost every weather station reporting three-digit rainfall totals.
The Colaba Observatory recorded an impressive 248 mm of rainfall, while the Santacruz Observatory measured 225 mm during the first spell. The widespread heavy showers brought much-needed relief from the prolonged dry spell but also resulted in waterlogging, traffic congestion, and disruption of normal life across several parts of the city.
However, the intensity of rainfall has dropped sharply during the last 24 hours. Rainfall over Santacruz was almost negligible, while Colaba received only about 5 mm. The significant reduction in rainfall indicates that the initial monsoon surge along the Konkan coast has temporarily weakened.
Monsoon Surge Loses Momentum
The vigorous monsoon current that lashed Konkan & Goa, Mumbai and adjoining coastal Maharashtra during the onset phase has weakened to some extent. The offshore trough remains active but lacks the strength required to sustain widespread heavy rainfall over the region.
As a result, Mumbai is expected to witness light to moderate showers over the next 48 hours. While brief spells of rain will continue, prolonged heavy downpours are unlikely during this period. Cloudy skies and intermittent showers will nevertheless keep weather conditions pleasant, with daytime temperatures remaining below normal.
Rainfall Activity to Intensify Again
The lull in rainfall is expected to be short-lived. Weather conditions are likely to become favorable once again from June 29 onward, as the monsoon current strengthens over the Arabian Sea and the west coast.
Under the influence of strengthening southwesterly winds and enhanced moisture incursion, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over Mumbai, Thane, Navi Mumbai, Palghar, Raigad and many parts of coastal Maharashtra during the first week of July.
This upcoming spell has the potential to produce intense showers at isolated places, especially during the morning and late evening hours.
Waterlogging and Traffic Disruptions Likely
With the return of heavy rains, low-lying areas of Mumbai are once again likely to experience waterlogging, while commuters may face traffic snarls and delays in suburban rail and road transport during peak rainfall hours.
Such conditions are quite typical during the early phase of the monsoon season when strong moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea interact with the Western Ghats, resulting in persistent heavy showers along the Konkan coast.
Residents are advised to remain updated with weather forecasts and plan their travel accordingly during periods of intense rainfall.
Reservoirs to Receive Much-Needed Recharge
The forthcoming spell of rain is expected to bring significant relief to Mumbai's water supply situation. The city has been facing concerns over reservoir storage due to subdued pre-monsoon and early monsoon rainfall.
Heavy and widespread rainfall over the catchment areas of the lakes supplying water to Mumbai will help improve reservoir levels considerably. If moderate to heavy rain continues during the first week of July, it will substantially ease the pressure on the city's water resources.
The expected increase in inflows into the reservoirs will come as a welcome relief not only for Mumbaikars but also for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), which closely monitors water storage throughout the monsoon season.
Outlook
Although the initial burst of monsoon rainfall over Mumbai has temporarily subsided, there is no indication of a prolonged dry spell. The current lull is expected to last only for the next couple of days before monsoon activity regains strength.
The first week of July is likely to witness another active phase of the southwest monsoon over Mumbai and the Konkan coast, bringing frequent moderate to heavy showers, cooler temperatures, improved reservoir inflows and typical monsoon-related disruptions across the city.
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