Monsoon Advance Delayed Over Extreme Western Parts: Likely In Next Three Days
Satellite Imagery: Mosdac.gov.in
Key Takeaways:
- The southwest monsoon is yet to cover Jaisalmer district and parts of Barmer in West Rajasthan.
- A developing cyclonic circulation near Pakistan and North Rajasthan may help the monsoon advance further.
- Light rainfall is possible over the remaining uncovered areas in the coming days.
- Skymet expects the monsoon to cover the entire country by July 11, the slowest nationwide advance since 2021.
- Forecast Validity: Next 3 to 5 days.
As per the scheduled timelines, the southwest monsoon covers the entire country by 08th July, that is today. However, it is yet to reach the last posts of West Rajasthan. The northern limit of the monsoon passes through Barmer on the western end and Bhatinda on the eastern side. Practically, Jaisalmer district and some parts of Barmer division are left out. It has rained well even over Phalodi, Jodhpur and Bikaner districts, which share a border with Jaisalmer, during the last 2-3 days.
It is always a tough task for the monsoon current to reach the last bastions of Rajasthan. The Bay of Bengal current lacks the steam to reach these pockets on its own. Invariably, the passage of an active western disturbance across the mountains pushes the monsoon trough to cover the fag-end portion of West Rajasthan. There is a western disturbance, presently seen as an upper-air system along 72°E, but confined to the north of 30°N. It does not look strong enough to take the monsoon further with adequate rainfall.
There is a likelihood of a cyclonic circulation developing in the lower levels over Central Pakistan and the adjoining border areas of Punjab and North Rajasthan. The southwesterly winds from the Arabian Sea may bring in some moisture to strengthen it. The left-out areas of West Rajasthan include locations like Jaisalmer, Pokharan, Kanoi, Madasar, Tanot and Munabao (Barmer). These places may get some light spells, if not all, at least some. The monsoon may cover the entire country by 11th July 2026. This could be the most delayed coverage since 2021, when the monsoon reached the last posts on 13th July 2021. The earliest coverage since 2021 was last year, when the whole country was swept more than a week in advance, on 29th June 2025.
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