Wait for Monsoon is Over: Mumbai Rains Set to Intensify
Key Takeaways:
- Southwest Monsoon is likely to officially arrive over Mumbai around June 23 after a delay of more than 12 days.
- Rainfall activity is expected to increase across Mumbai, Konkan, Goa, and adjoining West Coast regions.
- Mumbai is unlikely to witness extreme onset rainfall, though isolated heavy spells may occur.
- India’s monsoon rainfall deficiency has reached around 42% during June amid ongoing El Niño Watch conditions.
- Forecast Validity: Next 5–7 days.
The prolonged wait for the Southwest Monsoon is finally coming to an end for Mumbai. After remaining unusually subdued for nearly three weeks, rainfall activity is expected to pick up significantly from June 23 as the monsoon advances along the West Coast.
The Santacruz Observatory has recorded only 32.3 mm of rainfall up to June 22, which is far below normal for this time of the season. The city received its first spell of moderate showers on June 1, measuring just 13 mm, while the second spell arrived on June 21 with 19 mm of rain. Between these two events, rainfall remained largely absent, leaving Mumbai under a prolonged dry spell.
The onset of the Southwest Monsoon over Mumbai has already been delayed by more than 12 days. However, atmospheric conditions are now becoming favorable, and we expect the monsoon to be officially declared over Mumbai on June 23. Rainfall is also likely to increase over Konkan, Goa, and other parts of the West Coast.
Despite the expected revival, Mumbai is unlikely to witness the classic onset deluge associated with three-digit rainfall totals. Instead, rain is expected to remain moderate with a few isolated intense spells. This would be a welcome development for Mumbaikars, as extremely heavy rainfall often results in widespread waterlogging, flash floods, traffic snarls, and major inconvenience for daily commuters.
Meanwhile, the El Niño Watch remains in place, and its influence may become more evident during July and August. The Southwest Monsoon has already recorded a rainfall deficiency of around 42% during June, and the shortfall may persist or even increase if rainfall over central and eastern India does not improve soon.
For the remainder of June, Mumbai is likely to receive fairly consistent rainfall with occasional heavy showers. However, residents of eastern and central parts of the country may have to wait a little longer for widespread monsoon rains, as the advance of the monsoon is expected to remain relatively slow over these regions.
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