Skymet Weather Forecast May 16: Southwest Monsoon Signals Strengthen Over Bay Of Bengal, Heatwave Persists In Northwest India

By: Mahesh Palawat | Edited By: Arti Kumari
May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM
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Key Takeaways:

  • Southwest Monsoon conditions are becoming favourable over Andaman Sea and nearby regions.
  • Rain and thunderstorms are likely across Northeast India, South India and Himalayan states.
  • Dust storms and thunderstorms may impact Delhi, Rajasthan, Haryana and adjoining areas.
  • Severe heatwave conditions are expected over parts of West Rajasthan.

The Weather Systems Over The Country

Conditions are becoming favourable for the advance of Southwest Monsoon over parts of South Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 16.

The well-marked low-pressure area over Southwest and adjoining West-Central Bay of Bengal is persisting over the same region at 0530 hours IST today, May 14. The associated cyclonic circulation is extending up to 5.8 km above mean sea level.

The Western Disturbance is persisting as a cyclonic circulation over Jammu and adjoining Pakistan between 3.1 and 5.8 km above mean sea level.

A cyclonic circulation over East Uttar Pradesh now lies over Bihar at 0.9 km above mean sea level.

A trough extends from Southeast Rajasthan to Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim across North Madhya Pradesh, Southeast Uttar Pradesh, and the cyclonic circulation over Bihar at 0.9 km above mean sea level.

Another north-south trough is extending from Vidarbha to the well-marked low-pressure area over Southwest and adjoining West-Central Bay of Bengal across Marathwada, North Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, and North Tamil Nadu at 0.9 km above mean sea level.

Weather Activities During The Last 24 Hours

During the last 24 hours, light to moderate rain with one or two heavy spells occurred over Sikkim, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Assam, Lakshadweep, and Coastal Karnataka.

Light to moderate rain and thunderstorms with strong winds of 40 to 50 kmph prevailed over Northeast India, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, parts of Delhi and NCR, North Rajasthan, Haryana, North Punjab, and West Uttar Pradesh.

Light rain with a few moderate spells occurred over Kerala, Coastal and North Interior Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu, East Madhya Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.

Heatwave conditions occurred over Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Maharashtra.

Forecast

During the next 24 hours, light to moderate rain with one or two heavy spells may occur over Sikkim, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, parts of Assam, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Light to moderate rain is possible over Jammu and Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka, parts of Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and in isolated pockets of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

Dust storms and thunderstorms associated with scattered to isolated rain may occur over parts of Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, and West Uttar Pradesh.

Heatwave to severe heatwave conditions are possible over parts of West Rajasthan.

Heatwave conditions are possible over Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Maharashtra.

Temperatures may increase gradually by 3°C to 4°C across Gujarat, Maharashtra, Northwest, Central, and East India during the next two days.

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Mahesh Palawat
Vice President of Meteorology & Climate Change
Mr. Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology & Climate Change, is a former Air Force boxer and a passionate weather enthusiast. Dedicated to tracking and predicting weather for the benefit of farmers and the general public, he has been an integral part of Skymet since its inception.
FAQ

Conditions are becoming favourable for monsoon advancement around May 16.

Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh may witness dust storms and thunderstorms with scattered rain.

West Rajasthan may witness severe heatwave conditions, while Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra may continue to experience heatwave conditions.

Disclaimer: This content is based on meteorological interpretation and climatological datasets assessed by Skymet’s forecasting team. While we strive to maintain scientific accuracy, weather patterns may evolve due to dynamic atmospheric conditions. This assessment is intended for informational purposes and should not be considered an absolute or guaranteed prediction.

Skymet is India’s most accurate private weather forecasting and climate intelligence company, providing reliable weather data, monsoon updates, and agri-risk management solutions across the country.