Dry-Hot Weekend For Delhi: Rainy Week Follows
Image: AI-Skymet
Key Takeaways:
- Delhi has remained rain-free for the last seven days, pushing maximum temperatures to the highest level of the month.
- A western disturbance and cyclonic circulations are expected to shift the monsoon trough closer to Delhi next week.
- Light rainfall may begin on the night of 19 July, followed by frequent light to moderate showers.
- The prolonged wet spell is likely to reduce the monthly rainfall deficit and provide sustained relief from the heat.
- Forecast Validity: Next 5 to 7 days.
Monsoon showers have remained elusive across most parts of Delhi over the last few days. The record-keeping station at Safdarjung has not received any rainfall during the past seven days. The lack of monsoon showers has resulted in a rise in mercury levels across Delhi-NCR. The base station at Safdarjung recorded a maximum temperature of 39.2°C, the highest so far this month. The temperature may breach 39°C today for the second consecutive day. The observatory has recorded 132.2 mm of rainfall so far against the monthly normal of 195.8 mm. However, the capital city may catch up with the normal rainfall as decent showers are expected during the next week.
The east-west oriented monsoon trough, the main trigger for Delhi's rainfall, is currently positioned slightly north of the capital city. The western end of the trough passes through Jammu, Bareilly, Basti, and further eastwards. Multiple factors are likely to work together to enhance rainfall during the next week. A fresh western disturbance will arrive over the mountains on 19th July. Simultaneously, a cyclonic circulation will develop over West Rajasthan and adjoining border areas. Together, these systems will pull the monsoon trough southwards, bringing it into close proximity to Delhi between 20th and 22nd July.
Meanwhile, the cyclonic circulation associated with the low-pressure area over Odisha and Chhattisgarh will travel from east to west along the Indo-Gangetic Plains. This system will further push the monsoon trough southwards, keeping it close to Delhi between 23rd and 27th July.
Light rainfall over Delhi may commence late in the night on 19th July. Thereafter, light to moderate rain is expected to become more frequent across the city and its suburbs over the following days. The wet spell may continue until the fag end of the month. Temperatures are likely to witness a marginal dip tomorrow and the day after. A more substantial drop is expected from Monday, 20th July onward, with pleasant weather likely to persist for the rest of the week. The prolonged wet spell may bring sufficient rainfall to take the monthly total closer to the normal.
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